September 14, 2013, 20:18:20 |
Quote (Pointyy @ 01 September 2013 16:07)
Quote (Nanaers @ 01 September 2013 14:15)
Quote (EniWayPossible @ 31 August 2013 21:51)
Congratulations! Also, I'm not very good at math, but what is a 0.01 drop rate chance 1/10,000?
This is like primary school math....
0.01% would mean 1/100 divided by 100. so yes 1/10,000
Edit: Take in to account that since these relics drop on multiple mobs and by having a full party 6 people have a chance of dropping it.
1/416, With a full party and reaching the pp lock, if you constantly fight 4 mobs you should drop one relic after 417 fights, obviously you have to take in anomalies but statistically this is what should happen.
Just to clarify, the 4 represents the number of mobs per fight.
(1-(1-1/416)^500) = .7
Only a 70% chance to drop 1 in 500 fights; (20 * 500)/60 = 166 hours = 6.9 days = about a week
For reference, 98% confidence is reached after around 1600 fights, which would take 3 weeks.
Quote (Chrolo @ 01 September 2013 15:41)
you forgot that only 1 party member has the chance to drop. So its more like:
Well if this is right, then 70% is achieved at 3000 fights (6 weeks), and 98% is at over 9000 fights (18 weeks).
We don't actually know how the relic drops work, however it's highly unlikely it works the way either nanners or chrolo descripted as no drop is calculated that way.
From dev posts(
), I see three plausible ways.
Way 1: Each person gets to PP roll for it, so individually your chances are 1/10,000 on base PP. Usually it is only boss drops that allow everybody to roll. But relics are special, so who knows.
Way 2: If there are 4 monsters, 4 relics are added to the list and randomly distributed. If there are 6 players in the party, individually on base PP your chances are 1/15,000. Plausible.
Way 3: The relic is limited to 1 per group so only one person will PP roll for it, so if there are 6 players in your group, individually on base PP your chances are 1/60,000. Plausible, but there seems to be too many relics already in circulation for that to be true.
Until we get more information, we won't know which way the relic drops work. If someone happens to get a double relic drop (1 person, 2 relics), or a double relic drop across a party (2 persons, 1 relic each) this would really pinpoint what kind of system it is using.